So both conventions are over; the first new polls are in and there are 58 days to the election. So some thoughts from your truly:
1) The Palin Pick. I have been a Palin fan for a while. She was not my #1 choice (but there was no way my #1 would have been chosen) nor I did not expect here to be chosen, but am happy she was. That said, let's not go crazy. I don't think McCain was a "genius" for picking her because that implies he knew what would happen after her announcement. I suspect he liked that fact that a) she was reformer and conservative and b) her personal story was as compelling as his...though in a very different way. But no one could have foreseen what happened last week.
2) Who Won the Convention War. This was an odd one. If it were a sports match all the statistics would indicate a Democratic victory. But the score ended up with the GOP winning (I think). Again, chalk it up to the sharpshooter from AK.
3) Rather Redux. Labor Day weekend was the scene of the most vicious media onslaught again a politician that I can recall. And like the fake TANG story promulgated by 60 Minutes in the 2004 election, it backfired. The main stream media simply did not get it. While most of them DID NOT offer stories, enough of the fringe (US Weekly, Atlantic) did to tar them all. Also, notably absent were sane voices on the major networks calling foul. The hue and cry from the Right was "show us a major media story that deeply probes something controversial about Obama..." So rumors about a McCain Affair 20 years ago is fair game, but false. Rumor about an Edwards Affair in the past two years is off limits, but true. Rumors about Palin (some 54 rumors) and her KIDS are fair game, and false. My liberals friends just don't understand the CONSISTENCY of the double standard and the ever shifting reasons for or against coverage that always seems to benefit the Democrats.
4) The New Reagan. Palin, for all of her qualities, is not the New Reagan. It is true she has the ability to connect with average folk, just like Reagan did, but time will tell whether her views are similar to the Gipper's. But I, for one, am not looking for the New Reagan. I am looking for a New Somebody Else. Maybe Palin will be that person.
5) The Obama Mystique. Despite the best efforts of the media to shield Obama from tough issues, at some point, people will start to look at him deeper. I suspect that will happen in the next 45 days and he will be found wanting. His claims have never matched his record. He is not a reformer; he is a guy who rode the wave of the Chicago political machine. He his record is very partisan. And on the "judgment" question, he has never admitted to one area where he has been wrong, such as the surge.
Right now momentum clearly favors the GOP. That can change tomorrow. Stay tuned.
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