Dems in 2008

Assuming that things go the way they seem to be and President Bush does not step into it with the debates, GWB wins in 2004. So what about 2008? Ramesh Ponnuru engages in some idle speculation. Most interestingly, Ramesh assumes two things, first the GWOT will continue (highly likely) and second, the HRC will be the nominee.

Given the 2004 campaign, is that a certainty? A month ago, I would have said yes, but seeing how badly Terry McAuliffe and Joe Lockhart have performed (both loyal Clintonistas), I am no longer sure. I wonder if HRC will be tainted with that brush.

Probably not. The fact is John Kerry is a completely un appealing candidate that has run an unappealing campaign. (One can argue that President Bush has also run an unappealing campaign, ala Andrew Sullivan.) He has not acted Presidential in the least. Nor has his staff, nor has the chairman of the DNC. Again, all these points can be argued against the Republicans, but the individuals (Bush, Rove, Gillespie) have pretty much stayed out of it. I think most voters will be forgiving of flip-flops and what one did 30 years ago, but for God sakes act the part. JFK has not.

So what about HRC in 2008. While I am not an HRC fan, I think she has tremendous cross over appeal. She has a very likeable public persona, she is unquestionably smart (book and street) and she plays the system like a virtuoso. She does not pander hard to the base because the base knows her and she is confident enough to realize that the Democratic base is not going anywhere. She will craft a centrist message and has not been in the Senate long enough to suffer an attackable voting record. (As for Hillarycare, she will brush that off as a great idea, badly implemented. "Let's do it right next time.")

Further, she has her own team. She will not stand by while her husband's political cronies (especially a lightening rod like McAuliffe) screw-up. Her team will a classic liberal, Democrat team cloaked in the "New Democrat" label - no Max Cleland's around. And, she will run as the incumbent. The Republican nominee will be new to the nation (a downside of a Bush/Cheney ticket), but she will run as Clinton III (and IV).

Ouch. Unless Rudy Gulianni runs, HRC beats a Republican governor of your choice by 4%, picks up a working majority in the Senate and has small gains in the House. Remember, you heard it here first.