The "War" on Terror

Five years after 9/11 and I am still not sure we have the honesty to win World War IV. I use the word “honesty” on purpose as it describes the internal problem we face in the United States. We are not honestly facing our terrorism problem and we are not honestly discussing what lies ahead.

World War IV is an apt description when you see the Cold War as World War III. Further, the Cold War as WWIII begins to give you a sense of the pace and duration of the struggle against radical Islam. If you see the descent if the Iron Curtain (Churchill’s speech in 1946) as the start of WWIII and the Fall of the Berlin Wall (1989) as the end, that struggle took 43 years to “win.” At times – Korea, Vietnam, Middle East, Afghanistan – it blew hot, but mostly was cold. But “cold” in the sense of guns going off between the proxies of the combatants, the ideological struggle was continuous. I suspect that the “war on terror” will be similar.

I also think there are other parallels between WWIV and WWIII. In the 1950s, communism was a very chic political perspective for the Western intelligentsia…utopia for the masses. It is not that anyone really wanted to LIVE in the USSR, but it imbued a sense of revolutionary thought for those who needed it. Similarly today, the hatred of American of the Islamic fascists shares a common cause with the anti-American intellectual left. Not that they really want to LIVE in Iran or Saudi Arabia, but it does give them a sense of moral superiority…to make common cause with the beheaders.

Further, it took some time for the US and the West to stop playing into the Communists hands by getting directly involved in shooting wars (Korea and Vietnam) that they were incapable of “winning.” By the late 1970s, the US was getting the Soviets into a shooting war (Afghanistan) that THEY were incapable of winning. Similarly, the use of proxies by the Jihadists has been superb for the past 30 years and will take some time for the US and West to understand how to play that game better. I suspect that we will by using local rebels; Special Ops and Western “security firms” (read mercenaries) to help us with “plausible deniability.” Finally, as stated in the prior paragraph, the use of non-military power (economic and cultural) must be merciless.

I would also note that the Jihadists have evolved the use of proxies from nation-states to various "group du jours" that will rise and fall in prominence. They understand that they cannot win a straight up military battle, so have developed a "whack-a-mole" strategy, where we spend a ton of effort to "destroy" "God's Islamic Sword only to find out Allah's Virtuous Heroes are doing the bombing, followed by Son of the Jihadis. As time has past, the half life of the terror organizations is diminishing: we are learning and adapting.

This is not to say WWIII and WWIV are the same…rather WWIV is the next evolution of asymmetric warfare. The use of proxies by the Soviets was asymmetric; the West took some time to develop an appropriate response. The use of economic power by the US was asymmetric; and the Soviets never could respond and ultimately “lost” WWIII.

My concern is that the War on Terror will be treated like the War on Drugs. The War on Drugs was (is?) a feel good effort focused on ridding the world of cocaine at the source. A “supply side” war, as it were. This was (and continues to be) an intellectually dishonest policy, IF YOU DON”T ADDRESS THE DEMAND. Similarly, we need to address the supply and demand side of the terrorism question.

By “demand side” I mean that we need to address the combination of hate messages (from imams) and willing young men. I am not close enough to the problem to be specific about a course of action, but it always strikes me that “female freedom” (the ability of an educated woman to chose her mate) and economic liberty (the ability of a man to provide for a family – hence attract a mate) are two fundamental ingredients. Without female empowerment and economic liberty, we will continue to have disgruntled men willing to wage jihad.

WWIV is a long war. It will blow hot and cold. We will suffer defeats (9/11; 7/11; Madrid) and have our victories. I am hopeful that there will be an event, such as the Fall of the Berlin Wall to mark the end of WWIV, but that is wishful thinking.

WWIV will be a test of this country’s ability to adapt its values to a changing environment. It will be a challenge for those in the political extremes (at least the intelligent ones) to distinguish their criticism from the value system of the enemy. It will involve using a broad range of the strengths of the United States and the West. We need Europe involved. We need moderate Muslims to stand strong.

And we need one other thing: for years the IRA was supported by Americans. It is an ugly tale the needs an open airing to help us understand the support of terrorism can come in many forms…even that lovable Irish cop on the corner of Boylston. We, as a nation, need to understand that our enemy will take comfort and draw strength from us if we are irresponsible. We need debate, decision and then action. And our lives depend on it.