Whack a Mole - Middle East Version

I believe what we are NOT seeing in the Middle East is more interesting then what we ARE seeing.

The democratic West continues to play "whack-a-mole" in the Middle East. Al-Qaida in Iraq - WHACK! Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon - WHACK! Syria is poised to get whacked next; followed by Iran.

The problem is, like the arcade game, the moles still keep popping up. Waiting in the wings are Egypt and Saudi Arabia, each very different problems then the boy dentist in Syria and the nutty 12th Imam in Iran.

To the extent Iran has miscalculated, it is not in regard to Israel's response - that plays right into Iran's thinking - it is in regard to the reaction of fellow ME nations. The semi-dictatorships of Egypt and KSA cannot afford the continued destabilization of ME politics by Iran. Each of Egypt and KSA are the product of the balancing of radical and moderate elements and neither Hosni or the House of Saud is particularly fond of pushing the power of the radicals TOO much. Egypt and KSA can draw kudos in the West for condemning Hezbollah (and, in certain quarters, Israel) and be ready to step into a lead role in the ME if (when?) Iran gets its comeuppance.

Iran has started this proxy war to justify to the UN its development and possession of nuclear weapons. Iran does not need a distraction to its "nuclear crisis," it needs justification. Iran knew it could count on a strong Israeli response and could count on its apologists in the West to - at minimum - condemn Israeli fro being "overly" aggressive. Iran can now say, "see we NEED nukes."

The question is "what is next?" Many, including me, thought Israel would go after Syria right off. This, of course, is stupid. Tactically, Israel must do what it is doing before it addresses the Syria question. Further, Israel is not a nation builder. In the event it destroys Assad's regime, it will require the US to step in (France will probably play a constructive role here - for once).

The big question is that if Israel strikes Syria, what will Iran do? Do Syria and Iran has a mutual defense pact? Iranian involvement, it seems to me, presents the US with an opportunity to legitimately bring down the mullahs, but it is not clear to me that we will seize this opportunity. (I think that direct Iranian involvement would stretch Israeli resources too thin for Israel's comfort.) We might get away with allowing Iraqi AFB as refueling stops and form a one-way picket against Iranian air incursions (not that that would be a problem for Israel, but it would distract them from the main objective). But are there enough Neocons in the administration to take a bold step?