8.01.2006

The End Game

So it seems now that my thought of a wider war on Syria by Israel was off the mark. So now, the logical question is what is the end game for Israel? There is no doubt that time is running short as the drum beat of media shows Lebanese "victims" of Israel. No matter about the questions related to Qana, the media is right on track to help the terrorists.

So what now. Hezbollah can not be defeated. It is the nature of the organization to melt away prior to destruction and reform later. Destroying is rocket arsenal is a good thing, but these can be replaced. Assassinating Hassan Nasrallah? Okay, again good, but someone new will emerge. My point? No one will declare Hezbollah defeated. There is no one to surrender. Absent such a clear cut victory, the world media will declare Hezbollah the winner thereby compounding the problem. (Truth is irrelevant and consequences are unimportant given the opportunity to repudiate the Bush administration and its "proxy" Israel.) Cowering at the Iranian embassy, surrounded by children (as shields), Nasrallah will commend the courage and bravery of his terrorists fighters and their "victory."

I think that there is a way for Israel to "win." First, they must degrade Hezbollah significantly and I am not sure how they would know when that is accomplished. Second, after winning, Israel must make a "Grand Gesture" toward peace with the Lebanese and Sunni Muslims (Hezbollah and the Iranians are Shiites). I need some time to think through what a "Grand Gesture" would look like (an Israeli Marshall Plan for Lebanon?), but the "Grand Gesture" would allow Israel to immediately seize back the moral high ground and not allow Hezbollah, the Iranians; the anti-Israel Europeans and the media acolytes to make up "war crimes" against the IDF.

Withdrawing within Israel's borders will not work. The Knesset needs to think this one through. This battle may have been rough going for the IDF, but it is a cake walk compared to the next one if Hezbollah gains face.

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