More Bracket Musings

Using the S-curve ranking, here are the top 16 teams in order:

1. Illinois
2. UNC
3. Duke
4. Washington
5. Wake
6. Kentucky
7. UConn
8. OSU
9. Arizona
10. Kansas
11. Oklahoma
12. Gonzaga
13. Louisville
14. Syracuse
15. Florida
16. Boston College

There might have been some flipping with Syracuse and Florida because of the bracket location, but compare that to the final AP poll.

1. Illinois
2. UNC
3. Duke
4. Louisville
5. Wake
6. OSU
7. Kentucky
8. Washington
9. Arizona
10. Gonzaga
11. Syracuse
12. Kansas
13. UConn
14. BC
15. Michigan State
16. Florida

The thing that jumps out at you is that the conference tournaments made a difference in the major conferences. Dick Vitale has said that the two snubs are Miami-Ohio and Notre Dame. I think his reasoning is sound, but look at the tournament performance of Notre Dame and Miami-Ohio and you get an understanding of the Committee.

Second, is that the Committee seems to weight the second half much more. "What have you done for me lately?" The polls are more forgiving in that regard I think. Witness BC and UConn. The Committee seemed to forget the UConn-UMass game in December. (As has all of the Husky Faithful.)

Finally, the RPI? (I used Sportline RPI.)

1. Kansas
2. Illinois
3. Duke
4. OSU
5. UNC
6. Wake
7. Washington
8. BC
9. Arizona
10. Kentucky
11. Louisville
12. UConn
13. Gonzaga
14. Villanova
15. Oklahoma
16. Wisconsin

She no matter that much. If it did, OSU would be a much higher seed. We will see how the RPI stands as a predictor. What it does say is that BC is a sleeper and UConn and UNC will have their hands full with Kansas.

More observations to come.