Tomorrowland

I will go with Thew's flow here. It was not the approach I was thinking about, but hey, it works fine. So taking his topics and adding or deleting, this is what I see.

But before I go forward there is one item Thew did not mention that I believe is critical to EVERYTHING.

Batteries - The next 30 years will see a huge revolution in batteries. And without this revolution much of what we are talking about will be inhibited. The efficiency of using electricity in devices will go up (mitigating somewhat the advancements in batteries required), but soon we will see the power in a car battery being stored in a 9-volt size battery.

Personal Communication - I do agree that "form factor" advances will dictate and we will have variations of "faster, smaller, cheaper." Form factor is interesting in the sense that as forms become compact, HOW a person uses things becomes important. In other words, we all are hardwired to do things in a certain way and each of us has a different way we are comfortable (generally, think men v. women, teenagers v. adults). When a form factor becomes compact, it limits the "how" - often severely.

Personal Transportation - I actually do not see us getting away from people on wheels. What I do see is a big change in the organization of highways. With a combination of GPS, positioning makers and super cruise control, drivers will "log into" the highway system and relinquish control of the car. The car will then chauffeur the passengers to or near to their intended destination. This system is impractical on back roads, but will speed up travel and alleviate congestion.

Long Distance Travel - I expect travel to finally become comfortable. That would be enough of an advance for me.

Space Travel - Vacation plans in space will happen, but I also think we will plan (if not launch) a manned space mission to Mars. Further, I do expect a larger, permanent manned presence in space, either in a new and improve ISS or a manned facility on the Moon.

Genetics - Growing new organs is promising and should be common place. Identifying genetic defects or negative propensities (high blood pressure) will also become available. I think we will wrestle with moral questions on this. Is a defect enough to abort a baby? These are difficult moral questions.

We will see very targeted killer agents, either organic or inorganic (nanobots). We will not eliminate cancer, but the ability to successfully treat the disease will increase and the side effects of treatment will drastically diminish.

I also predict we will see one substantial plague or other biological disaster in the next 90 years. This will either be by accident or through warfare.

Energy - By the end of this century, oil will not be the dominant source of energy. In fact, the era of big, centralized energy production is about to end. Photovoltaics and pyroelectrics will allow builders to create homes that generate enough electricity to significantly reduce or eliminate drawing power from the grid. I also believe that we will harness naturally occurring static electricity (think lightning) where conditions allow it.

Bots - I am skipping "Bionics" to talk Bots. Whether you are talking about nanobots or the more garden variety (think ASIMO or P3 from Honda), robot will emerge as significant aide to many of the things we do. Nanobots are fascinating in the variety of things that are possible, but most are thought experiments in the sense that building useful THINGS are still quite a ways away.

ID Improvements - I view this as a convenience thing that consumers will adapt as they get comfortable with any real or perceived complications. My dog has a chip in him right now in case he gets lost. You will have a chip in you at some point, because THEY ARE HERE! The benefits are plenty, but people do believe that the risk of "loss of privacy" is too great. I say, "bunk!" I would love to have a tracking chip in my children. LoJack tor Tilam Jr. and his siblings! (I am sure Mrs. Tilam would approve of a tracking chip for me!)

The Singularity - Of course, whether technological singularity will happen in the way Vinge thought it would is open to debate, but few people thought Moore's Law would continue either. My basic disagreement with the concept of singularity is that I am unconvinced that AI can show enough creativity to guide technology development. Understand that practical technology development is a very, very small subset of what technological development is possible. For instance, a computer can develop a automobile for a twelve handed creature. Advanced? Certainly. Practical. Not so much.

As an aside, for this reason, I am unafraid of Asimov's "I, Robot" problem. Self-awareness is required (and assumed) for any of the robotic doomsday predictions. (One of my favorites is Colossus: the Forbin Project.) But self-awareness is not universal. It has been found in humans, apes, dolphins and elephants (and I assume that it will be found in other vertebrates), but I question whether it can be programed.

Okay, I am done.